Following the chill in US employment,is economic growth also set to cool down?
At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday evening,the US Department of Commerce will release the final annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the US second-quarter real GDP.The market generally expects that economic growth will be slightly revised down from the previous 3% to 2.9%.
However,Goldman Sachs expects a larger downward revision of GDP.Goldman Sachs points out that due to the downward adjustment of non-residential construction,service consumption,and equipment investment,last year's GDP growth rate will be reduced by 0.3-0.4%.These revisions combined will reduce the year-on-year growth rate of the second-quarter GDP from 3.1% to 2.7%.
In addition,Goldman Sachs points out that in line with the trend of significant wage cuts,GDI (Gross Domestic Income) will also be correspondingly reduced.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the statistical discrepancy—the difference between GDP and GDI—will only slightly narrow,reducing by about 0.2-0.3% compared to last year.Nevertheless,revisions by the second quarter of 2024 and the inclusion of source data beyond explainable data may further narrow the gap.
Analysis suggests that data is always revised downward,never upward.The US economy shows signs of fatigue under pressure,first in employment,with last month's non-farm employment numbers significantly revised downward,the second-largest ever,followed by the continuous downward revision of overall GDP,and the same will happen to US stock earnings,followed by the entire US stock market.
Previously,the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its US economic growth forecast by 20%,expecting the US economy to slow down to 1.6% next year as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.
At the same time,the OECD predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2024 and 2025,a 10% increase from last year,mainly attributed to the expected increase in Saudi Arabia,Russia,and Brazil,as well as the improved expectations for the UK economy.
In addition,at the same time as the US GDP announcement,a series of important economic data will also be released,including the final quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the US second-quarter real personal consumption expenditure,the final annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the US second-quarter core PCE price index,the month-on-month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August,and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21.
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